Prop Firm Evaluation Simulator

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Prop firm evaluation simulator

Every pass-rate figure you have read was published by someone who profits when you buy an account. This one uses your numbers. It runs ten thousand simulated evaluations under your firm's actual rules and tells you how many of them you passed.

Nobody pays us to send you anywhere. We take no referral fee, affiliate commission or rebate from any prop firm, broker or platform — which is exactly why these tools can tell you the unflattering answer, and why we will never rank firms for you. Almost every other site in this space earns when you buy an account. We don't.

This is not a prediction and it cannot become one. It is what the arithmetic of your own win rate and payoff ratio implies, repeated ten thousand times under the constraints your firm publishes. The result is stable — the same inputs always give the same answer — and it is only ever as good as the numbers you put in.

Your trading, as it actually is

Win rate (%) From your log, not your best month

Average win ($)

Average loss ($) As a positive number

Trades per day

The evaluation you are attempting

Profit target ($)

Max drawdown ($)

Drawdown type

Daily loss limit ($) 0 if none. Hitting it ends the day, not the account.

Minimum trading days 0 if none

Consistency rule (%) Max share of total profit any one day may be. 0 if none.

Passed

Hit the drawdown first

Still going after 60 trading days Neither passed nor breached — a quarter of a year of paying fees

Reached the target but failed a rule Consistency or minimum days, then breached before fixing it

Typical days to pass, when you passed

Typical days to breach, when you breached

The arithmetic underneath it

Expectancy per trade

Expectancy per day

Break-even win rate The win rate at which this payoff ratio exactly breaks even

Days to the target with no variance at all The number people plan with. Variance is why it is not the answer.

Why this number is usually lower than you expect

Because the target and the drawdown are not symmetrical. To pass you have to travel a long way up; to fail you only have to travel a short way down, and you have to avoid doing it even once along the entire route. A method with a genuinely positive edge can still fail most evaluations, simply because the drawdown is close and the target is far.

That is not an argument against prop firms and it is not an argument that you will fail. It is the reason the same trader can pass on the third attempt having done nothing differently — and the reason a single pass proves very little about a method.

What this simulation assumes, and where it is wrong

That your trades are independent. They are not. You trade worse after losses and size up after wins, and no simulation captures that. Real results are usually worse than this.
That your win rate and averages are stable. They are estimates from a sample, and if that sample is small they are barely estimates at all. Check yours on the sample size tool before you trust this one.
That every trade is the same size. Most people's biggest losses are bigger than their average loss, which the drawdown notices even if the average does not.
That you stop at 60 days. Some evaluations have no time limit; the cap here is to keep the number honest about how long “eventually” can take.

Every one of those assumptions makes the simulation optimistic. Treat the figure as a ceiling rather than a forecast — the best case for a version of you who trades like a machine.

Three ways to move the number

Raise the payoff ratio before the win rate. Win rate is hard to move and easy to fool yourself about. The ratio of average win to average loss is mostly a function of where you put the stop and when you take profit, both of which are decisions rather than skills.
Take fewer trades per day. Counter-intuitive, and it works: fewer trades means less variance per day, which means fewer of the bad days that end evaluations early. It also usually raises the quality of what is left.
Do not chase the minimum days. If the rule says five days, the simulation that passes in five is the one that got lucky. Passing slowly and passing are the same outcome.

The other free tools

What do your trades actually prove?Your win rate over a small sample is mostly noise. Find out how much. Position size calculatorContracts, dollar risk, and the copied-account multiplier. Drawdown runway calculatorHow many maximum-loss days your account can survive. Prop firm rule decoderWhere your liquidation line actually sits, and what a consistency rule really asks of you. The one-page rulebookRules specific enough that a trade either followed them or it didn't.

Where these numbers live the rest of the week

A calculator answers one question once. The Rules Desk Journal & Workbook is the same arithmetic wired into a trade log that keeps score: the range your win rate is actually consistent with, your break-even win rate, expectancy, results split by setup, and what your rule breaks have cost you in dollars. Plus an 18-page printable workbook for writing rules specific enough to be checked.

$39. One spreadsheet, one PDF, instant download. No subscription, no upsell.

See what's in it

Or wait for the software

The desk itself — you write your rules down, it tells you before each trade whether your own rules allow it, and reads your record back weekly. No market view, no signals, no trade calls. It has no opinion about the market and never will.

One email when it opens. No launch date promised, nothing else sent, unsubscribe in one click.

Educational tool only. This is arithmetic on numbers you type in — it is not investment advice, it does not predict anything, and it has no opinion on what you should trade. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and most people who try it lose money. Past results, including your own, do not predict future results. Verify contract specifications with your broker and your account rules with your firm; both change.