Rules First · Lesson 2 of 9 · Free

The maths of the attempt

Evaluations are lopsided: to pass you travel a long way up; to fail you only travel a short way down, once. A trader whose method makes money over many trades can still fail more evaluations than they pass. That’s the shape of the rules, not a verdict on the trader.

Your break-even win rate

The win rate at which your trades break even depends on your average win and average loss:

break-even win rate = average loss / (average win + average loss)

Example: a $300 average win and a $250 average loss give 250 / 550 = 45.5%. Win more often than that and each trade earns something on average. At a 50% win rate, that’s $25 a trade: (0.5 × $300) − (0.5 × $250).

What the rules do to your odds

The same example trader: 50% win rate, $300 average win, $250 average loss, three trades a day, a $3,000 target and a $2,000 drawdown. Ten thousand simulated evaluations for each drawdown type:

Intraday trailing 53.7% passed End-of-day trailing 57.1% passed Static 72.2% passed

The trades are the same in all three. Only the rule changed. Making money on average doesn’t mean you’ll pass. It means the odds lean your way, and how far they lean depends on the rule type.

What the attempt really costs

The price on the checkout page is one attempt. The real cost is every attempt.

Example:

3 evaluations at $165 $495 4 resets at $85 $340 1 activation fee $130 5 months of fees at $39 $195 Spent $1,160 Withdrawn $800

Every dollar that reached the bank cost $1.45. This isn’t an argument against prop firms. It’s an argument for knowing your own numbers before you buy the next account.

Your turn

Put your own win rate, average win, average loss, trades per day, target and drawdown into the evaluation simulator.
Put every fee you’ve paid and every withdrawal into the cost calculator. If you’re new, put in what you plan to spend.

Done when: you know your break-even win rate, your pass odds under your account’s drawdown type, and what an attempt really costs you.

If you don’t have 20 or more logged trades yet, your win rate is a guess. Use careful numbers, and check again once you have more trades. The “What your trades actually prove” tool shows how much a small sample can tell you.

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Educational material only. Not investment advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and most people who try it lose money. Check your account rules with your firm; they change.

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Prop firm rules checklist

The questions to answer from a firm’s own rules page before you buy an evaluation. Drawdown type, daily limit, consistency, payouts, every fee.

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The Desk (new)Write your rules once, then check each trade against them. Yes or no, with the reason.What it has cost you so farEvery evaluation, reset and monthly fee against every withdrawal. The net.Evaluation simulatorTen thousand simulated evaluations on your numbers. How often do you pass?Consistency rule calculatorYour best day is too big a share. How much more, and the day size to stay under.Payout-day checkCan you request a payout yet? Qualifying days, consistency, buffer and limits.Prop firm rule decoderWhere the line that closes your account actually sits, and what open profit costs you.Am I ready to size up?Four checks on your own record. Not yet, hold, or one step up.The one-page rulebookRules specific enough that a trade either followed them or it didn't.Position size calculatorContracts, dollar risk, and the copied-account multiplier.Drawdown runway calculatorHow many maximum-loss days your account can survive.What do your trades actually prove?Your win rate over a small sample is mostly noise. Find out how much.

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The Rules Desk Workbook cover beside the Journal’s Review tab

Where these numbers live the rest of the week · $39

Journal & Workbook

The same arithmetic in a 500-row trade log that keeps score: your win-rate range, break-even, average result per trade, results by setup, and what rule breaks cost you. Plus an 18-page printable workbook.

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