The Rules Desk Course · Lesson 7 · Free sample

What your record proves, and what it doesn’t

A 60% win rate feels like proof. On 20 trades, it isn’t. This lesson is about the gap between what your record shows and what it proves.

This is a sample from the paid course. Lessons 4 to 9 are in the full course. This one is free so you can see the depth before you buy. Get the full course.

The range is the real answer

Your win rate on a small sample is a rough guess at your true win rate. The honest way to report it is as a range.

Example: a setup with a 60% win rate, $300 average win and $250 average loss. Its break-even win rate (Lesson 2) is 45.5%. Here is the range each record supports (a 95% Wilson interval):

20 trades, 12 winners: 60% range 38.7% to 78.1% 40 trades, 24 winners: 60% range 44.6% to 73.7% 100 trades, 60 winners: 60% range 50.2% to 69.1%

Same 60% every time. Only the number of trades changed.

At 20 trades, the bottom of the range (38.7%) is below break-even. The record hasn’t ruled out a losing setup yet.
At 40 trades, it’s still just below (44.6%).
At 100 trades, the bottom (50.2%) clears break-even. Now the record supports “this makes money on average”, for this sample, under these rules.

Your setup might make money at 20 trades. You just can’t say it does yet.

Proving it works vs deciding to stop

These aren’t the same bar, and that’s fine.

To say a setup works, you need the bottom of the range above break-even. That usually takes many trades.
To stop risking money on it, you only need the line you wrote in Lesson 4 to be hit. “After 20 trades, if the average result per trade is below zero, it goes back to demo.” You’re not proving it’s broken. You’re deciding, in advance, when the evidence is bad enough to stop paying for it.

Check your Lesson 4 line now. Has it been hit? If yes, do what it says. If you want to argue with it, that’s exactly the moment it was written for.

Only trades under the same rules count

If you changed the setup’s rules at trade 15, trades 1–14 and 15 onward are two different samples. Don’t add them together. This is why Lesson 9 changes one thing at a time.

What your record can’t tell you

Whether your rules are good. It reads results, not decisions.
The future. Even a record that clears break-even describes the past.
Anything, if trades are missing. Leave out the bad ones and the numbers are fiction.

Your turn

Put your trades, winners, average win and average loss into What your trades actually prove. The Review tab in the Journal shows the bottom of the same range (“Your real win rate is likely at least”), worked out from your log.
Write down your range, your break-even win rate, and whether the bottom of the range clears it.
Check the By setup tab. A record that makes money overall can be one setup carrying the others.
Check your Lesson 4 line for each setup.

Done when: you know your win-rate range, not just one number, and you’ve checked each setup against the line you wrote in Lesson 4.

Next in the full course: Lesson 8, payout requests. Get the full course.

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Educational material only. Not investment advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and many people who try it lose money. Check your account rules with your firm; they change.

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The DeskWrite your rules once, then check each trade against them. Yes or no, with the reason.What it has cost you so farEvery evaluation, reset and monthly fee against every withdrawal. The net.Evaluation simulatorTen thousand simulated evaluations on your numbers. How often do you pass?Consistency rule calculatorYour best day is too big a share. How much more, and the day size to stay under.Payout-day checkCan you request a payout yet? Qualifying days, consistency, buffer and limits.Prop firm rule decoderWhere the line that closes your account actually sits, and what open profit costs you.Am I ready to size up?Four checks on your own record. Not yet, hold, or one step up.The one-page rulebookRules specific enough that a trade either followed them or it didn't.Position size calculatorContracts, dollar risk, and the copied-account multiplier.MNQ calculatorPoints to dollars on MNQ or NQ, with fees. Or dollars to points.Futures tick value calculatorTick and point values for 12 contracts, and your dollar rule in points.Drawdown runway calculatorHow many maximum-loss days your account can survive.What do your trades actually prove?Your win rate over a small sample is mostly noise. Find out how much.

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Every result here is arithmetic on the numbers you type, not a prediction. How we check the math. Futures trading carries real risk of loss: read the Risk Disclosure.

Where these numbers live the rest of the week · $39

Journal & Workbook

The same arithmetic in a 500-row trade log that keeps score: your win-rate range, break-even, average result per trade, results by setup, and what rule breaks cost you. Plus an 18-page printable workbook.

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The Rules Desk Course

Ten short lessons that turn these numbers into a weekly routine: rules you can check, a full trade log, checking a payout request against your firm’s rules, and a review that changes a rule only on evidence. Includes the $39 Journal & Workbook. Lessons 1 to 3 and 7 are free to read first.

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